the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …

different from zero. Although there is little evidence of a systematic response following a typical flow demand shock, the … medium-run responses to a speculative demand shock differ between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, i.e., on average over the …