Goyal, Amit; Welch, Ivo - In: Management Science 49 (2003) 5, pp. 639-654
of popular equity premium and stock market time-series forecasting regressions. When applied, we find that dividend … dividends themselves and shows that an increasing persistence of dividend-price ratio is largely responsible for the inability … of dividend ratios to predict equity premia. Cochrane's (1997) accounting identity---that dividend ratios have to predict …