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scenario of capital outflows. Second, the optimal policy mix depends on the underlying shock driving capital flows. FXI takes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828217
allow for a standard nominal interest rate shock and an inflation target shock. In response to the highly persistent … inflation target shock we largely find evidence of a Neo-Fisher effect: the nominal interest rate co-moves positively with … expectations do not adjust immediately to the target shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848183
I study spillovers of US monetary policy to the rest of the world, as well as spillbacks to the US economy in an empirical multi-country model over time. Within the multilateral framework, I distinguish the bilateral effect from the network effects that arise from interactions among recipient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256990
shock, is negative for expansionary depreciations and positive for contractionary ones. For this type of shock, interest … is strong or mild. Interest rates are predicted to also rise in response to an adverse net export shock in contractionary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604594
information with signal extraction, the realisation of a relatively less frequent shock leads the central bank to behave as if a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604654
We investigate the impact of the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcements on the level and volatility of the EUR-US Dollar exchange rate employing an AR-FIGARCH specification. Using high-frequency data we estimate the individual and complementary effects of the release of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003763600
We document a drift in exchange rates before monetary policy changes across major economies. Currencies tend to depreciate by 0.7 percent over ten days before policy rate cuts and appreciate by 0.5 percent before policy rate increases. We show that available fixed income instruments allow to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954654
In this study we model the monthly and the daily US, Euro Zone, UK and Australian exchange rates in India using the symmetric (sGARCH) and the asymmetric (GJR-GARCH and EGARCH) volatility models with the normal, the student t and the skewed student t error distributions. We also investigate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962908
The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904307
We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We also show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002583