shock decomposition exercise show that inflation and inflation expectations are primarily driven by changes in the curvature …This paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, i … out to investigate second-round effects on inflation through the inflation expectations channel. These are found to be …

role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially …The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that … supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no …

This paper presents evidence that inflation expectations, as measured by the Michigan Survey of consumers, only play a … minimal role in the propagation of real oil price shocks into inflation. This is despite evidence which confirms inflation … mid-1990s, inflation expectations may have played no part in propagating real oil price shocks into inflation …

States and the euro area. For many of the basic items in the basket of goods used to estimate inflation, the effects of oil … through to core inflation (or rather to inflation excluding food and energy products) by means of macroeconomic factors; while …

that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated …

This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations … on both inflation and output. In addition, threshold functional local projections indicate that the effects are nonlinear … and depend on central bank credibility. Further, inflation expectations shocks have similar effects to supply (demand …

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the … near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …

This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over the 1970-2022 period. We estimate a Factor … domestic shocks. We report three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a … typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically …

role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially …The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that … supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no …