The COVID-19 pandemic is forcing researchers, clinicians, and policymakers to accelerate the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. Critical to these evaluations is the ability to characterize the uncertainty of inferences in clear terms accessible to a broad set of stakeholders with varying...

Long-term forecasts are hard, but also indispensable in personal and policy planning. How could long-term predictions of complex phenomena, such as COVID-19 contagion, be enhanced? While much effort has gone into building predictive models of the pandemic, some have argued that early exponential...

This paper is dedicated to study the discrete time compound binomial dual risk model, where the income is time-correlated, and there is a constant dividend barrier. It is close to the reality if we consider that the incomes in different periods are correlated. And in this paper, the income is...

In this chapter, we explicate two related techniques that help quantify the sensitivity of a given causal inference to potential omitted variables and/or other sources of unexplained heterogeneity. In particular, we describe the Impact Threshold of a Confounding Variable (ITCV) and the...

An arbitrage portfolio provides a cash flow that can never be negative at zero cost. We define the weaker concept of a 'desirable portfolio' delivering cash flows with negative risk at zero cost. Although these are not completely risk-free investments and subject to the risk measure used, they...

The publication of several special issues was part of the initiatives taken in 2013 to launch Risks as a new online journal. It seemed natural to devote one to this important, concrete and complex problem of managing catastrophic and heavy tailed risks. We received an enthusiastic response last...

This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial...

Using an approach similar to that of Gerber and Shiu (1998), a recursive formula is given for the expected discounted penalty due at ruin, in the discrete time risk model. With it the joint distribution of three random variables is obtained; time to ruin, the surplus just before ruin and the...

In the context of a locally risk-minimizing approach, the problem of hedging defaultable claims and their Föllmer–Schweizer decompositions are discussed in a structural model. This is done when the underlying process is a finite variation Lévy process and the claims pay a predetermined...

The publication of several special issues was part of the initiatives taken in 2013 to launch Risks as a new online journal. It seemed natural to devote one to this important, concrete and complex problem of managing catastrophic and heavy tailed risks. We received an enthusiastic response last...