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The macroeconomic projections of the German government : a comparison to an independent forecasting institution

Lehmann, Robert; Wollmershäuser, Timo - In: German economic review : GER 21 (2020) 2, pp. 235-270

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240884

Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? : panel-based evidence on accuracy and forecaster behaviour from Germany

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Müller, Karsten - 2018

Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852757

The macroeconomic projections of the German government : a comparison to an independent forecasting institution

Lehmann, Robert; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2019

the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that … decline in Germany's trend growth and a systematic failure to correctly anticipate recessions. We show that the German …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958832

Nowcasting German GDP : foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging

Andreini, Paolo; Hasenzagl, Thomas; Reichlin, Lucrezia; … - In: International journal of forecasting 39 (2023) 1, pp. 298-313

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014462781

Real-time Markov switching and leading indicators in times of the financial crisis

Theobald, Thomas - 2012

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616498