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ALICE: composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

Bondt, Gabe J. de; Hahn, Elke; Zekaite, Zivile - In: International journal of forecasting 37 (2021) 2, pp. 687-707

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792864

Introducing the euro Area-wide Leading Indicator (ALI) : real-time signals of turning points in the growth cycle from 2007 to 2011

Bondt, Gabe J. de; Hahn, Elke - In: Journal of forecasting 33 (2014) 1, pp. 47-68

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424882

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle

Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914

ALICE : a new inflation monitoring tool

Bondt, Gabe J. de; Hahn, Elke; Zekaite, Zivile - 2018

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901421

Detecting and predicting economic accelerations, recessions, and normal growth periods in real-time

Proaño Acosta, Christian - 2013

The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010240802

In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany

Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394