type="main" xml:id="obes12053-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We suggest to use a factor model based backdating procedure to construct historical Euro-area macroeconomic time series data for the pre-Euro period. We argue that this is a useful alternative to standard contemporaneous aggregation methods. The...</p>

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2006-065 Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data Ralf Brüggemann* Helmut Lütkepohl** Massimiliano Marcellino*** * Department of Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany ** Department of Economics,...

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts....