actions in the corresponding game. We find no evidence of a hindsight bias or wishful thinking in any of the treatments. …

using a Hierarchical Bayesian approach that accounts for complexity biases and sure-thing bias. The results indicate that … respondents exhibit a bias towards negative sure-things, although to a lesser extent for positive sure-things. We also nd weak … evidence supporting a bias towards three-payo⁄ prospects compared to two-payo⁄ prospects. Thus, while biases are present, there …

overconfidence, egocentrism, and the mythical fixed pie illusion oftentimes foreclose profitable results. A further cognitive bias is …

representativeness effect, which is known to induce 'alternation bias' on binary iid sequences such as those generated by coin tossing in … St. Petersburg gambles. Once alternation bias is controlled for, conventional parameterizations of CPT yield finite …