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Subjective uncertainty, expectations, and firm behavior

Lautenbacher, Stefan - 2021

expectations and document a strong negative relationship. However, the link is much weaker in bad times, since uncertainty is then … persistently high - even when expectations are favorable. I continue by investigating the relative importance of uncertainty and … expectations for corporate decisions. Exploiting information on firms' investment and labor reactions to the COVID-19 crisis, I do …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500426

Fear of taxes

Leal, Julio; Mandujano, Javier - 2019

change in expectations is documented using a novel source of information available in Google Trends, among other sources. It …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616381

Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies

Evans, George; McGough, Bruce - In: Contributions to Macroeconomics 5 (2005) 1, pp. 1264-1264

We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of sunspot solutions. A general bivariate reduced form contains parameter regions in which sunspots...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005751492

Behavioural Theories of the Business Cycle

Jaimovich, Nir; Rebelo, Sérgio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

and overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, while overconfident agents …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792149

Money, Income, Inflation and the Acceleration Principle

Karpetis, Christos; Varelas, Erotokritos - In: Economia Internazionale / International Economics 58 (2005) 2, pp. 179-201

. Assuming that expectations are adaptive, we determine and solve a second order system of difference equations with constant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008490663

Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles

Beaudry, Paul; Dupaigne, Martial; Portier, Franck - Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) - 2009

This paper reexamines the question of how to explain business cycle co-movements within and between countries. First, we present two simple theoretically flexible price models to illustrate how and why news shocks can generate robust positive co-movements in economic activity across countries....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008465346

Determinacy and Stability Under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria.

Gauthier, S. - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative … - 1999

This paper studies relationships between the determinacy of a stationary equilibrium in the perfect foresight dynamics, and its local stability in dynamics arising from econometric learning procedures. There is no clear links in linear scalar economies where agents forecast only one perods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005479035

Expectations Fromation and Business Cycle Fluctuations : An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1993.

Lee, K. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 1995

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005274287

Sunspot Fluctuations around a Steady State: The Case of Multidimensional One-Step forward Looking Economic Models.

CHIAPPORI, P.A.; GEOFFARD, P.Y.; GUESNERIE, R. - Département et Laboratoire d'Économie Théorique … - 1990

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005212120

On the Learnability of Rational Expectations Equilibria in Three Business Cycle Models.

Packalen, M. - Politiikan ja Talouden Tutkimuksen Laitos, … - 2000

consumption and labor. In the two latter models we also analyze the existence and learnability of sunspot rational expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005035745