We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

Central Bank (ECB) exploiting the ow of conventional and textual data that become available between two consecutive press … main drivers of the ECB's reaction function at every point in time. In out-of-sample nowcasting experiments, the model … provides an accurate tracking of the ECB monetary policy stance and decisions. The inclusion of textual variables contributes …

We examine howthe verbal complexity of ECB communications affectsfi-nancial market trading based on high-frequency data … fromEuropean stock index futures trading. Studying the 34 events between May 2009 and June 2017, during which the ECB Governing …

This paper investigates the financial market effects of the ECB's communication on the Pandemic Emergency Purchase … press releases, ECB blog contributions, speeches and interviews on changes in government bond spreads. Second, we assess … whether spreads react differently to communication by specific ECB Executive Board members. Markets turn out to be sensitive …

This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation … uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook … forecasts of inflation) but also makes forecasters less uncertain about their own beliefs, thus reducing ex-ante average …

interest rates have hit their effective lower bounds (ELB). In case of the European Central Bank (ECB), this should have … increased the informational content of the introductory statements at the press conference following ECB policy meetings. We … examine whether this form of ECB communication adds information to a shadow interest rate that summarises the overall policy …

information search patterns, of German citizens on trust in the ECB. We rely on a unique representative public opinion survey of …, about the ECB foster citizens trust. Specific knowledge about the ECB is more influential than general monetary policy …, especially newspaper reading, has a significantly negative influence on trust. We conclude that the only viable way for the ECB …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … consistent with the aim of managing inflation expectations, as published forecasts play a central role in the ECB's monetary …