Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers,...

This paper estimates the pass-through of different shocks into alternative U.S. prices that are important for policy makers. The results based on the implications of a structural vector autoregression model show that oil price pass-through (OPPT) into import prices and producer prices is about...

Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector autoregressive model of the global oil market that jointly identifies...

The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline) is based on testing the null hypothesis of a zero slope coefficient in a static single-equation regression model fit to aggregate data. Given that the regressor in this model...

The article studies the macroeconomic impact of oil price changes in 17 highly heterogeneous countries classified in six groups: advanced, emerging, oil producer, non-oil producers, with energy price controls and without energy price controls. The results show that despite analyzed countries...

This paper evaluates the degree of the pass-through effect of the oil price shock using disaggregated CPIs in the US. We find a significantly positive effect of the oil price shock only on energy-intensive CPIs, which imply that the strong pass-through effect on the total CPI is mainly driven by...

Edelstein and Kilian (2009) point out that the oil price shock involves a reduction in consumer spending, which results in a decrease in the demand for goods and services. This paper empirically evaluates this argument by empirically investigating effects of the oil price shock on six CPI...

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices. Liquidity is taken to be M2. A novel finding is that unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in...

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices. Unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries? liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in commodity prices that are much larger than the effect...

Industrial production and liquidity in China and liquidity in other major countries are introduced into the Kilian (2009) model identifying the supply and demand side factors driving real oil price changes. It is recognized that China’s real liquidity may proxy for real income increase in...