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Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014308585
This paper reviews the recent development and new findings of the literature on learning to forecast experiments (LtFEs). In general, the stylized finding in the typical LtFEs, namely the rapid convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in negative feedback markets and persistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215416
English Abstract: This paper suggests a dynamic measure of intentional herding, causing the excess volatility or even systemic risk in financial markets, which is based on a new concept of cumulative returns in the same direction as well as the collective behavior of all investors towards the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220876
We define corporate culture as an informal institution typified by patterns of behavior and reinforced by people, systems, and events. Corporate culture is manifest in many elements, but brings unity to employees’ perspectives through the expectations they have for how they need to behave to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290618
This paper attempts to develop a theory of statistical equilibrium based on an entropy-constrained framework, that allow us to explain the distribution of stock returns overdi erent market trends. By making use of the Quantal Response Statistical Equilib-rium model (Scharfenaker and Foley,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210881
Romanian Abstract: Efectele calendaristice asociate evoluțiilor piețelor financiare constau în randamente anormal de ridicate sau de joase care survin în intervale calendaristice specifice. Cunoștințele asupra unor astfel de forme de sezonalitate pot fi exploatate în conceperea unor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403085
One of the dangers of high inflation is that it can cause firms and households to pay close attention to it. This … internalization of inflation can lead to an accelerationist regime, making inflation harder to control. We empirically assess the … relationship between attention and the level of inflation for 37 countries. Our measures of attention are constructed either from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382698
Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current policy debate about … whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent pandemic-related increases in inflation. This paper … inattention when inflation is low. This suggests that there is indeed a risk of an acceleration in the increases in inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168934
persistent rise in inflation following the COVID-19 recession. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233385
February 2022. The sizeable cross-sectional heterogeneity in inflation is well explained by the differential exposures to a set … additional global factors, revealing that economies with procyclical inflation generally have higher inflation than economies … with countercyclical inflation. Furthermore, the comparisons with cross-sectional asset pricing theory are interesting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014237343