In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to...

We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...

Net corporate profits have persisted at historical highs for almost 10 years. Such levels exceed what can be profitably re-invested, as evidenced by aggregate dividend payouts and buybacks nearing 6% of GDP. We argue that at such levels corporate profits operate effectively as a tax on the...