In the growing literature on presidential elections, economic circumstances have a privileged position. Nearly all of the models designed to predict the 2008 presidential election included one or more aggregate economic indicators or aggregate public evaluations of economic circumstances. The...

This paper analyzes stock market reactions to election polls. Stock markets anticipate the impact of events on future cash flows. Current values depend on future cash flows and risk prospects. We posit that election polls are indications of the political platforms that are expected to win...

I examine the association between “Big Five” personality traits and voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election using an online panel of over 4,000 representative Americans. I find that personality has a strong, statistically significant association with voting intentions, even when...

This paper studies how international trade influences U.S. presidential elections. We expect the positive employment effects of expanding exports to increase support for the incumbent's party, and job insecurity from import competition to diminish such support. Our national-level models show for...

Donald Trump's presidential campaign highlighted protectionism of U.S.-born workers at a time of growing income inequality, racial tensions, and labor market polarization. Our study investigates if and how voters' life circumstances affected election behavior between 2012 and 2016, and how voter...

US voters have been moving apart in the last twenty years. This paper analyzes how their voting participation has partitioned by looking at US counties in the 2012 Presidential elections. To tackle this question, we propose a methodology that jointly addresses spatial autocorrelation of the...

Much of the public discourse and media analysis of the surprise outcome of the 2016 US presidential election has emphasized the role of manufacturing workers. This paper examines the importance of manufacturing jobs and job loss as determinants of voting patterns using county-level voting data...