Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of...

This paper assesses the merits of countercyclical loan loss provisioning in Uruguay. Using a stress test methodology, it quantifies the protection against macroeconomic shocks provided by the stock of dynamic provisions accumulated since 2001 and finds that medium-sized shocks would be fully...

The 2007/2008 food price crisis and the following global economic recession has (temporarily) increased the number of people to suffer from hunger. While the impacts can be measured with precision only ex post, for policy makers it is critical to get a sense of likely impacts ex ante in order to...

This paper introduces the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) compound option model. The model builds on the observation that the public sector net worth in a multi-period setting corresponds to the value of an option on an option on total government assets. Hence, the ALM compound option model...

Purpose This paper aims to analyze a conceptual framework of supplier-manufacturer relationship in a lean supply chain environment, which considers two different configurations for the integration of information and material flows, aiming to better understand the applicability of such kind of...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid approach called as Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics (SD) simulation approach for availability modeling and to study the dynamic behavior of repairable systems....