of inflation expectations--inflation expectations at any horizon--and an associated term structure of real interest rates …. Inflation expectations extracted from this model track realized inflation quite well, and in terms of forecast accuracy, they …-run inflation expectations remained anchored, and the policies of the Federal Reserve provided a large level of monetary stimulus to …

Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We demonstrate that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about … inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. We also provide evidence that monetary policy actions provide signals …

.S. economy, implying significantly positive real term and inflation risk bond premia. In contrast to previous literature, both …-rule responses to inflation (output) increase (decrease) both premia, while policy surprises generate negligible risk premia …

This paper considers how the role of inflation as a leading business-cycle indicator affects the pricing of nominal … growth and inflation. We solve for yields under various assumptions on the evolution of investor beliefs. If inflation is bad … spreads are high in times when inflation news are harder to interpret. This is relevant for periods such as the early 1980s …