We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters before Covid, but somewhat worse thereafter.

China's current account transactions use an offshore international currency, the CNH, that co-exists as a parallel currency with the mainland domestic currency, the CNY. The CNH is freely used, but by restricting its exchange for CNY, the authorities can enforce capital controls. Sustaining...

We analyze the impact of introducing a central bank-issued digital currency (CBDC) on the operational framework of monetary policy and the macroeconomy as a whole. To this end, we develop a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous banks, a frictional interbank market, a central bank with deposit...

Using high-frequency responses of oil futures prices to prominent oil market news, we estimate the effects of oil supply news shocks when systematic monetary policy is switched off by the zero lower bound (ZLB) and when it is not (normal periods) in Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United...

We provide new evidence on the spillover effects from US monetary policy, focusing on the nature of the shocks driving movements in US interest rates. With an SVAR-IV model used to identify monetary policy, demand, and supply shocks, we find that an increase in US interest rates driven by demand...

We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time...

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is a promise to obtain price level determinacy even if the nominal interest rate is constant. The idea is that a unique current price level ensures that the present value government budget constraint holds. I establish that this idea hinges on the...

Using French firms’ balance sheet data, we show that corporate debt structure plays a significant role in ECB monetary policy transmission. In addition to interest rate policy, we analyse the impact of a novel ECB-induced bond liquidity shock. While both types of policy tightening diminish...

We study the evolving operating procedures used by the ECB since its creation. During the period up to 2015, bank reserves were scarce and the ECB, like other central banks, used a corridor system in which the money market rate could fluctuate within the bounds set by the lending and the deposit...