Economists in the United States wrote reams of commentary on Argentina’s recession-turned-depression of 1998-2002. Most ignored basic facts that were readily available. As a result, they committed important errors, including mistaking Argentina’s central banking system for a...

In a model with imperfect money, credit and reserve markets, we examine if an inflation-targeting central bank using the funds rate operating procedure to indirectly control market interest rates also needs a monetary aggregate as policy instrument. We show that if private agents use information...

This paper employs semi-annual observations from 1964s1 to 2005s1 to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanism that has operated in Pakistan. It does so by using the familiar VAR approach and by analysing impulse responses and variance decompositions to banking sector and macroeconomic...

This paper uses a cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to investigate the relationship between interest rates and a set of macroeconomic variables in Italy and Germany, over the period 1989-1999. It has been found that both countries have placed importance on price...

We develop a macroeconomic framework where money is supplied against only few eligible securities in open market operations. The relationship between the policy rate, expected inflation and consumption growth is affected by money market conditions, i.e. the varying liquidity value of eligible...

This paper develops an analytical framework that can be used to anticipate problems in the banking system and enable supervisors to take mitigating actions at an early stage. <p> This paper has two components. First, it develops an early warning indicator that is intended to capture a number of the...</p>

This paper describes concepts and tools behind macroprudential monitoring, and the growing importance of macroprudential tools for assessing the stability of financial systems. This paper also employs a macroprudential approach in examining financial soundness and identifying its determinants....

Updated - please see paper 551.02 in this series. The Bank of Spain uses a unique auction format to sell government bonds, which can be seen as a hybrid of a uniform and a discriminatory auction. For winning bids above the average winning bid, buyers are charged the average winning bid,...

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility...

In the standard forward-looking models of the recent literature, theoretical optimal monetary policy rules imply much higher inertia of interest rates than estimated historical policy rules. Motivated by the observation that theoretical policy rules often assume perfect commitment on the part of...