This work investigates effects of conventional monetary policy and central bank information shocks from monetary policy announcements on the U.S. economy. We identify the surprises caused by changes in target rate and central bank's private information embedded in high frequency exchange rate...

We revisit the question whether U.S. fiscal policy in the pre-Volcker period was active or passive. To determine the policy stance, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. In contrast to...

Auf dem Höhepunkt der Finanzkrise vor zehn Jahren wurde die Schuldenbremse eingeführt. Seither haben sich die öffentlichen Haushalte deutlich erholt — wohl überwiegend nicht aufgrund der Schuldenbremse. Vielmehr haben der lang anhaltende Aufschwung und dauerhaft niedrige Zinsen zu einem...

We estimate the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time-varying VAR model for U.S. data from 1900 to 2011. We find the strongest relationship neither in times of crisis nor in times of high...

Structural VAR studies disagree with narrative accounts about the history of monetary policy disturbances. We investigate whether employing the narrative monetary shock account as a proxy variable in a VAR model aligns both shock series. We quantify the extent to which the disagreement still...

Financial repression allows governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates. Quantifying financial repression is challenging, because it relies on an estimate of the interest rate which would prevail in the absence of repression. In this paper, we put forward a quantitative business...

We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. Unlike existing studies, we do not have to treat each policy...