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Why votes have value: Instrumental voting with overconfidence and overestimation of others' errors
Dittmann, Ingolf; Kübler, Dorothea; Maug, Ernst; … - In: Games and Economic Behavior 84 (2014) C, pp. 17-38
We perform an experiment in which subjects bid for participating in a vote. The setting precludes conflicts of interests or direct benefits from voting. The theoretical value of participating in the vote is therefore zero if subjects have only instrumental reasons to vote and form correct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011049763
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Incentives and timing in relative performance judgments: A field experiment
Krawczyk, Michał - In: Journal of Economic Psychology 33 (2012) 6, pp. 1240-1246
Several studies have identified the “better than average” effect – the tendency of most people to think they are better than most other people on most dimensions. The effect would have profound consequences, such as over-trading in financial markets. The findings are predominantly based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051317
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Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?
Fellner, Gerlinde; Krügel, Sebastian - In: Journal of Economic Psychology 33 (2012) 1, pp. 142-154
Overconfidence is used to explain various instances of detrimental decision making. In behavioral economic and finance …. Empirical tests of these models often fail to find evidence for the predicted effects of overconfidence. These studies assume …, however, that a specific type of overconfidence, i.e. “miscalibration,” captures the underlying trait. We challenge this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051333
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How unaware are the unskilled? Empirical tests of the “signal extraction” counterexplanation for the Dunning–Kruger effect in self-evaluation of performance
Schlösser, Thomas; Dunning, David; Johnson, Kerri L.; … - In: Journal of Economic Psychology 39 (2013) C, pp. 85-100
Previous work on the Dunning–Kruger effect has shown that poor performers often show little insight into the shortcomings in their performance, presumably because they suffer a double curse. Deficits in their knowledge prevent them from both producing correct responses and recognizing that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051336
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Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments
Brookins, Philip; Lucas, Adriana; Ryvkin, Dmitry - In: Journal of Economic Psychology 44 (2014) C, pp. 1-12
the relative standing of their group among other groups. On average, individuals exhibit overconfidence bias in both types …, the salience of between-group judgments should mitigate within-group overconfidence. Our second hypothesis is that within …-group overconfidence is reduced in the presence of group identity. Using a 2×2 between-subject design, we test, and find strong support for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051357
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The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets— An experimental study
Kauko, Karlo; Palmroos, Peter - In: International Journal of Forecasting 30 (2014) 2, pp. 313-327
Experts were used as Delphi panellists and asked to present forecasts on financial market variables in a controlled experiment. We found that the respondents with the least accurate or least conventional views were particularly likely to modify their answers. Most of these modifications were in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051449
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Great expectations: Past wages and unemployment durations
Böheim, Renè; Horvath, Gerard Thomas; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf - In: Labour Economics 18 (2011) 6, pp. 778-785
profited from high firm-fixed components in the past. We interpret our findings as evidence for overconfidence generated by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051684
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Experimental evidence on the ‘insidious’ illiquidity risk
Besancenot, Damien; Vranceanu, Radu - In: Research in Economics 68 (2014) 4, pp. 315-323
This paper introduces an experiment aiming to investigate the contribution of illiquidity risk to the total risk of a collective investment project. If implemented, the project succeeds with a known probability. Yet the project fails if the quota of investors is not reached in the first place....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011118160
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Are we all overconfident in the long run? Evidence from one million marathon participants.
Krawczyk, Michał; Wilamowski, Maciej - Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warszawski - 2015
In this project we sought to contribute to extant literature on overconfidence by identifying it in a large … investigate national and cultural dimensions, confirming previously reported findings of relative overconfidence in Asians and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011118662
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How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?
Murad, Zahra; Starmer, Chris; Sefton, Martin - Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics … - 2014
bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect†(overconfidence in easy tasks and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123426