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Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial markets and commonly associated with excessive trading … and asset market bubbles. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, "static" personality … trait. In this paper we introduce a novel experimental design which allows us to track different measures of overconfidence …
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We develop a model in which an overconfident agent learns about groups in society from observations of his and others' successes. In our model, both the agent's information and his beliefs are multi-dimensional, allowing us to study interactions between different views. Overall, society always...
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The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most important economic and financial hypotheses that have been tested over the past century. Due to many abnormal phenomena and conflicting evidence, otherwise known as anomalies against EMH, some academics have questioned whether EMH is...
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