In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation …, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline … annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly inflation will have an effect on the headline figure equal to 10% of the …

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …

Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are … increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al …. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based narratives for the rising inflation together with socio-economic factors. A …

-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent …, households' narratives strongly shape their inflation expectations, which we demonstrate with descriptive survey data and a …

towards asylum seekers; 2) migrating workers in the workplace; 3) inflation and monetary policy; and 4) the role played by …

We provide evidence on the stories that people tell to explain a historically notable rise in inflation using samples … higher inflation rates. Experts put more emphasis on demand-side factors, such as fiscal and monetary policy, and on supply … the government. We also find that households and managers expect the increase in inflation to be more persistent than …

— in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and … their inflation expectations, which we demonstrate with descriptive survey data and a series of experiments. Third, an …

Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are … increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al …. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based narratives for the rising inflation together with socio-economic factors. A …