Empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is in-conclusive and its validity widely debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as we find, spreads between two yields are non-stationary,...

Empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is in-conclusive and its validity widely debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as we find, spreads between two yields are non-stationary,...

To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short-run dynamics of the...

We evaluate the extent to which the explanatory power detected in the term structure in different markets and countries can actually be used to produce sensible forecasts of future short-term interest rates. Specifically, in spite of the forecasting connotation of the unbiasedness property of...

This Paper studies the term structure of short-term interbank rates in Hong Kong. Principal component analysis suggests that the variation of the term structure can be largely attributed to two components that capture shifts in the level and slope of the yield curve. We find that term spreads...

The purpose of this paper is to test both short- and long-run implications of the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the...

This article proposes the orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial (OLP) model of the yield curve, a generic linear model that is both cross-sectionally consistent (that is, it reliably fits the yield curve at a given point in time), and inter-temporally consistent (that is, the cross-sectional...

We test the expectations hypothesis by analyzing changes in three month T-Bill rates (TB3) after FOMC meetings. By estimating the revisions in expectations of future overnight rates, we find a one-to-one relationship between changes in TB3 and path revisions.

How does the yield curve incorporate expectations on the Colombian future short-term interest rates? Two theories have been proposed to explain it: the Expectation Hypothesis and the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis. This paper tests both theories for the TES yield curve as well as for the CDT...

The purpose of this paper is to test the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results obtained support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with...