This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

We explain the close correlation of volatilities of GDP growth and inflation over the 1919-2004 period, using credit and money shocks that have "bad" and "good" effects that are defined in terms of their effects on the spectral variation in GDP. With these shocks, plus standard TFP productivity...

The paper sets out a monetary business cycle model extended to include the production of credit that serves as an alternative to money in transactions and is subject to productivity shocks. The model provides some improvement on certain puzzles, in particular by capturing the procyclic movements...