This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

For US postwar data, the paper explains central consumption, labor, investment and output correlations and volatilities along with output growth persistence by including a human capital investment sector and a variable physical capital utilization rate. Strong internal "amplication" results from...

For US postwar data, the paper explains central consumption, labor, investment and output correlations and volatilities along with output growth persistence by including a human capital investment sector and a variable physical capital utilization rate. Strong internal "amplication" results from...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

The paper sets out a monetary business cycle model with three alternative exchange technologies: the cash-only, shopping time and credit production models. The goods productivity and money shocks affect all three models, while the credit model has in addition a credit productivity shock. The...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable...

The paper sets out a monetary business cycle model extended to include the production of credit that serves as an alternative to money in transactions and is subject to productivity shocks. The model provides some improvement on certain puzzles, in particular by capturing the procyclic movements...