This paper investigates the estimation of long-term VaR. It also suggests a simple approach to the estimation of long-term VaR that avoids problems associated with the square-root rule for extrapolating VaR, as well as those associated with attempts to extrapolate day-to-day volatility forecasts...

The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort...