Die Zielsetzung der Studie besteht darin, durch Anwendung ökonometrischer Verfahren und Durchführung einer Primärerhebung fundierte Erkenntnisse zur Bedeutung von Agrarterminmärkten für Preisbildungsmechanismen auf deutschen Kassamärkten und Informationen zur Nutzung von Terminkontrakten...

The literature on short-selling restrictions focusses mainly on a ban's impact on market efficiency, liquidity and overpricing. Surprisingly, little is known about the effects of short-sale constraints on herd behaviour. Since institutional investors have come to dominate mature stock markets...

Motivated by repeated price spikes and crashes over the last decade, we investigate whether the growing market shares of futures speculators destabilize commodity spot prices. We approximate conditional volatility and analyze how it is affected by speculative open interest. In this context, we...

Im Zuge der weitgehenden Liberalisierung des europäischen Milchmarkts ist die Volatilität von Milchpreisen seit dem Jahr 2007 deutlich gestiegen. Das vorliegende Forschungsprojekt nimmt diese Entwicklung zum Ausgangspunkt, um die Frage nach der Eignung von Milchprodukt-Futures der European...

Die Zielsetzung des Forschungsprojekts besteht darin, neue Erkenntnisse zu den Eigenschaften der Preisbildungsprozesse deutscher Agrarrohstoffe zu liefern. Dabei stehen folgende Fragen im Mittelpunkt: Weisen deutsche Kassa- und europäische Futurepreise der Agrarrohstoffe Weizen, Mais und Raps...

We investigate the price dynamics of two illiquid agricultural futures contracts traded at the European Exchange in Frankfurt. Based on constant and time-varying vector error correction models, we measure the contribution of each futures market to price discovery. Although results from the...

This paper estimates standard and extended Taylor rules for core countries in the euro area, namely France, Germany and Italy, as well as for the ECB. Forward, backward and forecast-based rules are estimated for a variety of samples since the late 1970s. We are particularly interested in the...

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between stock returns and short-term interest rates. Identification of the stock return-interest rate relation is solved by using a new technique that relies on the heteroskedasticity of shocks to stock market returns. We suggest some improvements...

Using monthly data for the period 1953-2003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns. Our empirical findings show that political variables, selected on the basis of widely used model...