Expectations are central to behaviour. Despite the existence of subjective expectations data, the standard approach is to ignore these, to hypothecate a model of behaviour and to infer expectations from realisations. In the context of income models, we reveal the informational gain obtained from...

Expectations and riskiness of future earnings are crucial determinants of individuals' intertemporal choices. Yet, the empirical literature lacks reliable measures of the distribution of future income. Lacking direct observability, the latter is usually estimated inferring the mean, the variance...

<p>We document that home ownership of households with 'heads' aged 25-44 years fell substantially between 1980 and 2000 and recovered only partially during the 2001-2005 housing boom. The 1980-2000 decline in young home ownership occurred as improvements in mortgage opportunities made it easier to...</p>

<p>This paper concerns the decomposition of income risk into permanent and transitory components using repeated cross-section data on income and consumption. Our focus is on the detection of changes in the magnitudes of variances of permanent and transitory risks. A new approximation to the optimal...</p>

In this paper, using an OLG model with heterogeneous households, we investigate economic inequality in the recent decades in Japan. We decompose the causes of economic inequality into macroeconomic factors and a demographic factor, and demonstrate that the earning inequality in the model...

The study focuses on two components of total poverty: chronic and transient poverty, and investigates their relative importance in total observed poverty, as well as the determinants of each components. We found that transient poverty accounts for a large proportion of total poverty observed in...

This paper showed that the drop of propensity to consume in Japan during the lost decade is attributable to increase of income risks, mainly due to rises in unenployment rate/ To asses the impacts of income risks, we used the buffer stock saving model and a numerical method. The buffer stock...

This paper investigates the farm-level impacts of the 1996 farm bill on the South. Focus group perceptions of risk sources, observed acreage changes, and the farm-level impact of increased price risk are evaluated. Focus group respondents ranked price and yield as the two most important sources...

This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk and uses the empirical estimates of this relationship to asses the welfare costs of changes in trade policy. The empirical analysis proceeds in two steps. First, longitudinal data on income of Mexican...

Using a cross sectional farm-level data we find that farm households who face higher income uncertainty save more and accumulate more wealth. Precautionary savings is about 6 percent of the total farm household wealth. In addition to precautionary saving, and consistent with theory we found that...