Tests for relative predictive accuracy have become a widespread addendum to forecast comparisons. Many empirical research reports conclude that the difference between the entertained forecasting models is 'insignificant'. This paper collects arguments that cast doubt on the usefulness of...

Event studies represent an increasingly popular method to evaluate (future) welfare effects of economic policy decisions. The basic idea is to hire the stock market as a referee, i.e. that stock market reactions to the announcement of policy decision are interpreted to contain superior...

Finanzanalysten üben wichtige Funktionen auf den Kapitalmärkten aus. Sie sind wesentlich am Anlageentscheidungsprozess potentieller Kapitalgeber beteiligt und beeinflussen mit ihren Tätigkeiten das Kapitalmarktgeschehen. Sowohl das generelle Forschungsdefizit auf dem deutschen Aktienmarkt als...

In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the past 10 years. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures...