The decline in output volatility in Germany is analysed. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the...

We investigate convergence in European price level, unit labor cost, income, and productivity data over the period of 1960-2006 using the non-linear time-varying coefficients factor model proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). This approach is extremely flexible on order to model a large number of...

Inflation differentials in the Euro area are mainly due to a sustained divergence of wage developments across the Euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth (Alvarez et al., 2006). We investigate convergence of inflation using unit labour cost (ULC) growth and applying...

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

We use a life-cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice to study the effects of social security on the investment decisions of households for the European case. Our model is mainly based on the one developed by Cocco, Gomes, and Maenhout (2005). We extend it by unemployment risk using...

Empirical data analysis shows that the business cycles of industrialized nations demonstrate a fairly strong degree of synchronization in periods of growth, and a lesser degree of synchronization during periods of contraction. The current recession, however, breaks this pattern: the business...

Following an unprecedented contraction in GDP, the German economy returns to expansion. Growth will be modest in 2010, however, as the forces of the recovery are not yet stable. This is the key result of the Autumn outlook of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). DIW expects...

Deutschland ist in der Rezession. Zentrale Ursache dafür ist die schwache Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft. Die konjunkturelle Abkühlung wurde durch die Krise auf den Finanzmärkten erheblich verstärkt. Trotz massiver staatlicher Gegenmaßnahmen ist die Finanzkrise noch nicht ausgestanden. Sehr...

Das DIW Berlin rechnet zum Jahresende mit einer Stabilisierung der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Voraussetzung für eine konjunkturelle Stabilisierung ist jedoch eine Rückkehr des Vertrauens in die Finanzmärkte: Hierfür sind strukturelle Reformen und eine wirksame Regulierung des...