While many explanations have been put forward for the failure of exchange rate models to outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, a simple explanation is the use of measures of forecasting accuracy that depend entirely on the magnitude of the forecasting error. By using simulated...

The aim of this study is to show that there exists a common movement among the currencies of emerging market economies that implemented the exible exchange rate regime after 2000. Also, we examine if this common movement is closely related to financial markets and some macroeconomic fundamentals...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to undertake an econometric investigation of the determinants of the nominal South African rand/US dollar exchange rate before and after the country's financial liberalisation in March 1995. Design/methodology/approach – Regression models are used to...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how well contemporary exchange rate theories explain fluctuations in exchange rates of emerging economies, before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As an example, the EUR/PLN exchange rate in 1999-2015 was selected as the currency pair that...

The empirical literature on nominal exchange rates shows that the current exchange rate is often a better predictor of future exchange rates than a linear combination of macroeconomic fundamentals. This result is behind the famous Meese-Rogoff puzzle. In this paper we evaluate whether parameter...

This paper lays out a simple semi-structural method to estimate a small country version of the Natural Real Exchange Rate approach. Applying the model to the Finnish economy suggests that it works quite well in empirical applications. The predictions of the model regarding the impact of...