We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both...

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and...

The deficit bias, inherent in the single European democracies and magnified in the framework of a monetary union, calls for additional budget discipline to be enforced throughout Europe. In the terms in which it has been signed, however, the Growth and Stability Pact does not appear to be a...