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Schumacher, Christian - 2014

multi-step nowcasting tool, whereas bridge equations are based on iterated forecasts; 2) MIDAS equations employ empirical … set for nowcasting includes the most recent indicator observations in both approaches. To discuss the differences between … models are compared in an empirical application to nowcasting GDP growth in the Euro area given a large set of business cycle …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010432327

"I just ran four million regressions" for backcasting Turkish GDP growth

Günay, Mahmut - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402981

Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - European Central Bank - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344945

Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries

Sédillot, Franck; Pain, Nigel - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2003

Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046250

Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data

Rünstler, Gerhard; Sédillot, Franck - European Central Bank - 2003

The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530735

MIDAS and bridge equations

Schumacher, Christian - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093850

Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side

Hahn, Elke; Skudelny, Frauke - European Central Bank - 2008

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222305

Weather, the Forgotten Factor in Business Cycle Analyses

Döhrn, Roland; an de Meulen, Philipp - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2015

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206297

Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators

Benkovskis, Konstantins - Latvijas Banka - 2008

The conjunctural information from monthly indicators, e.g. industrial production, retail trade turnover, M3, confidence indicators, etc. could partly replace GDP data before the first official release is published. It is possible to incorporate monthly indicators into short-term forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005754879

Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment

Drechsel, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2013

computationally simple and can be easily implemented as a nowcasting tool. Finally, this method also allows retracing the driving …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010314774