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Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany / Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 225 (2005) 1, pp. 22-43
Summary Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609025
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Zur Evolution des deutschen Konjunkturzyklus 1958-2004 / On the Evolution of German Business Cycles 1958-2004
Heilemann, Ullrich; Schuhr, Roland - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 228 (2008) 1, pp. 84-109
Summary This paper examines changes of the (West) German business cycle from 1958 to 2004. It starts with a multivariate linear discriminant analysis (LDA) based decomposition of the cycle into 4 phases (upswing, upper turning point, downswing, lower turning point). After examining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609184
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Konjunktur und Generationenbilanz – eine Analyse anhand des HP-Filters / Business Cycle Effects on Generational Accounting – An Analysis using the HP-Filter
Benz, Ulrich; Hagist, Christian - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 228 (2008) 4, pp. 299-316
Summary Generational accounting is - given the future demographic developments in OECD countries - an established tool to quantify the fiscal situation of public coffers. However, as all economic methods dealing with future developments it has critical points. One in particular is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609187
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On testing for symmetry in business cycles
Westlund, Anders H.; Öhlén, Sven - 1989 - April 1989
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000758847
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The Global Multi-country model (GM) : an estimated DSGE model for the Euro Area countries
Albonico, Alice; Calès, Ludovic; Cardani, Roberta; … - 2017
This paper presents the European Commission's Global Multi-country model (the GM model). The GM model is an estimated multi-country DSGE model that can be used for spillover analysis, forecasting and medium term projections. Its development is jointly performed by the Joint Research Centre and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054701
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EU-wide income inequality in the era of the Great Recession
Benczúr, Péter; Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor; Harasztosi, … - 2017
This paper uses European micro-data to look at stylised facts of EU-wide income inequality during the 2006-2013 period. Our contribution is to bring together four elements of the analysis that has appeared only in separation so far. Our analysis is EU-wide, but regionally detailed, looks at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054706
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Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU : evidence from estimated DSGE models
Giovannini, Massimo; Hohberger, Stefan; Ratto, Marco; … - 2018
GDP growth differentials, and together with structural differences also contributed to differences in employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054993
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Do weak institutions prolong crises? : on the identification, characteristics, and duration of declines during economic slumps
Bluhm, Richard; Crombrugghe, Denis de; Szirmai, Adam - 2020
2014. Economic slumps are defined as abrupt interruptions of a period of growth by several regime switches. Slumps start … with a sharp contraction along with a trend break, which is followed by another switch when growth stabilizes again. The …, suggesting that institutions constraining leaders are important for stabilizing growth. This is particularly relevant for Sub …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012228613
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Semi-structural VAR and unobserved components models to estimate finance-neutral output gap
Kátay, Gábor; Kerdelhué, Lisa; Lequien, Matthieu - 2020
The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural unobserved components model. To complement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012320331