The main goal of this research is to improve the degree of accuracy for inflation rate forecasts in Romania. The inflation was forecasted using a vectorial-autoregressive model. According to Granger test for causality, the relationship between the two variables is reciprocal. The inflation rate...

The GDP forecasting is a prior concern for each country, but also for an entire region composed by more countries with specific and different evolutions of GDP. The GDP predictions for the 27 European Union are based on two econometric techniques. It was proved, using accuracy indicators like U1...

The assessment of uncertainty that characterizes the econometric model parameters is an important input for policymakers that have to establish more alternative policies to protect against persistent shocks of the economy. The objective of this useful research for policymakers is to evaluate the...

The aim of this research is to make predictions for macroeconomic variables like inflation rate, unemployment rate and exchange rate for Romania and Poland using BVAR models. The one-step-ahead forecasts cover the horizon 2011-2013. Direct forecasts were developed using three types of priors for...

The main aim of this study is to estimate an econometric model for describing the evolution of actives/GDP in 18 European countries in 2010. This variable is a proxy for financial stability and it depends on market share of the first 5 banks in each countries and the inflation rate. Moreover,...

The main objective of this study is to measure the degree of convergence in European Union- 28 (EU-28) in the period from 1995 to 2012. The catch-up rates diminished for many countries in the period from 2008 to 2012, because of the negative effect of economic crisis, when the disparities among...

The objective of this research is to analyze the differences between Romania and the European Union regarding the convergence process. In this paper we were interested in determining the forecasting horizon for which Romania, in certain conditions, might have a value of GDP per capita that is...

This is an original scientific paper that proposes the introduction in literature of two new accuracy indicators for assessing the global accuracy of the forecast intervals. Taking into account that there are not specific indicators for prediction intervals, point forecasts being associated to...

Bayesian econometrics knew a considerable increase in popularity in the last years, joining the interests of various groups of researchers in economic sciences and additional ones as specialists in econometrics, commerce, industry, marketing, finance, micro-economy, macro-economy and other...

The main objective of this study is to check the existence and the stability of Phillips curve for Romania, on the horizon from 1990 to 2013. According to Phillips Perron tests, all the variables are integrated of order 1. ARDL and DOLS approaches to co-integration were used to analyse the...