To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...

We propose a multivariate simultaneous unobserved components framework to determine the two-sided interactions between structural trend and cycle innovations. We relax the standard assumption in unobserved components models that trends are only driven by permanent shocks and cycles are only...

This paper examines the connectedness between Bitcoin and commodity volatilities, including oil, wheat, and corn, during the period Oct. 2013-Jun. 2018, using time- and frequency-domain frameworks. The time-domain framework's results show that the connectedness is 23.49%, indicating a low level...