Rising federal debt threatens to reduce the growth of the economy, people’s living standards, wages, and the standard of living. A policy solution needs to respect many constraints, most importantly, that it is seen as fair — both within generations and across generations. This article...

We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990-2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6...

We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960-2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt...

Political economy theory expects politicians to use budget deficits to engineer an election-timed boom, known as the political business cycle. We challenge and contextualize this view by incorporating the financial constraints faced by governments into an electoral framework. We argue that the...

Since the 1990s at least, UK HM Treasury has been leading a general transformation of public service and the relationship between public and private sectors, driven by a distinctive preference for the private sector. This preference has led to transplant the IFRS to provide a balance sheet...

In an influential paper, Devries et al. (2011) construct narrative series of tax- and spending-based fiscal adjustments for a panel of OECD countries. In this paper, we find that the adjustments based on spending cuts can be predicted on the basis of past output growth and other macroeconomic...

High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or below market real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for...

The sustainability of government's financial situation has two aspects: solvency and liquidity. The government is solvent if it satisfies its intertemporal budget constraint. In the steady state of a growing economy, the government is solvent if the public-debt-to-GDP ratio is constant and the...

Delegating fiscal decision making power to sub-national governments has been an area of interest for both academics and policymakers given the expectation that it may lead to better and more efficient provision of public goods and services. Decentralization has, however, often occurred on the...

This paper discusses an alternative route to a balanced budget, namely through debt control. Two models are compared: the debt brake which has been used in Switzerland since 2003 and the debt limitation model proposed by Compact for America. The paper concludes that the former, while apparently...