Using textual analysis of the largest dealers' newsletters to their clients, we construct a measure of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy (BSP). This measure of uncertainty tends to spike during the introduction of novel aspects of BSP or at its turning points, with the...

"This paper proposes a method for predicting the probability density of a variable of interest in the presence of model ambiguity. In the first step, each candidate parametric model is estimated minimizing the Kullback-Leibler 'distance' (KLD) from a reference nonparametric density estimate....