We develop a theory that connects insurance premiums, insurance companies’ investment behavior, and equilibrium asset prices. Consistent with the model's key predictions, we show empirically that (1) insurers with more stable insurance funding take more investment risk and, therefore, earn...

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40%...

We study trading at settlement (TAS) in which orders are priced at a differential to the not-yet-known daily settlement price. In our model, TAS mitigates adverse selection for patient liquidity traders, but imposes a negative externality on other market participants by “cream-skimming”...

We propose a method to decompose stock returns period by period. First, we argue that one can directly estimate expected stock returns from securities available in modern financial markets (using the real yield curve and the Martin (2017) equity risk premium). Second, we derive a return...