The 1992 Maastricht Treaty, laid the foundations for the current European Union with its single market in goods, services, capital and labour and established the framework for the creation of the single currency. We study countries that differ in the extent to which they share a common currency...

The study analysed the macroeconomic developments in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), focusing on macroeconomic imbalances for the period 2001-2022. The variables of interest in this study include inflation rate, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, current account balance,...

We first empirically document that excessive credit growth and asset price overvaluations raise the likelihood of financial crises and deepen the severity of associated economic downturns in advanced economies using linear probability models and local projections. We then rationalise these...

We empirically test Gabaix and Maggiori (2015)’s prediction that currencies are repriced by the country’s external capital dependence when financial constraints of FX intermediaries change. Using solvency indicators, we develop a novel intermediary constraints index capturing riskbearing...

U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. The author constructs their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in...

Several commentaries are written about de-dollarization. We analyze the factors which are contributing to de-dollarization and provide an alternative assessment. On the economic front, the US economy's reduced fiscal and financial capacity can strain economic trust in the dollar. The...

In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a...

This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an...

Purpose - Trade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been analyzed from a variety of perspectives, including the loss of jobs in the USA due to Chinese imports,...

This paper documents that cross-border investment income flows are important for explaining current account balances in major economies. Those investment incomes reflect returns on cross-border asset holdings and on balance often reach magnitudes around 5% of major economies' gross domestic...

This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards,...

We estimate shocks that explain most of the variation in the current account at business cycle frequencies and over the long run. We then explore, using a standard open-economy macro model, which macroeconomic shocks are behind the empirical dominant drivers of the current account at...

EU member states observe an elaborate process to preserve macroeconomic stability: the macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP). The MIP is supposed to monitor and prevent macroeconomic imbalances – and if necessary, correct them. It considers a variety of variables to determine the existence...

The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency and customs union that is made up of the eight low-income countries Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. Except for Guinea-Bissau, all member countries of the WAEMU have a shared...

Purpose - In light of Bangladesh's economy, the goal of this study is to examine the "Twin Deficit Hypothesis (TDH)," which refers to a link between the budget deficit and the current account deficit. This study used yearly time series data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the phenomena....

Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we...

This study aims to evaluate the public debt sustainability of Pakistan using the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework and fiscal reaction function (FRF). For the empirical analysis, it uses relevant important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, external debt, primary balance,...

We revisit the so-called "secular international problem", whereby the adjustment of current account imbalances purportedly falls entirely on the shoulders of deficit countries. We introduce a stylised model to rationalise an asymmetric counter-cyclical policy reaction that is stronger for...

We present a small analytical framework, built in the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) tradition, tailored to identify how specific financial and structural vulnerabilities of emerging economies (EMEs) restrict their expansion. This framework is applied to shed light on the impact...

The accumulated, persistent trade and economic imbalances between the south euro area (SEA) and the north euro area (NEA) countries brought about severe strains for the euro following the global financial crisis. This paper assesses alternative scenarios suggested to restore the trade imbalances...

We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial to understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) endogenous trade imbalances arising from...

Persistent external deficits are a recurrent phenomena in low and middle income countries. We define a new empirical measure to identify balance of payment crises related to the accumulation of persistent external deficits. Using a non-parametric difference-in-differences estimator we identify...