Despite far-reaching banking sector reforms over the past few years, financial intermediation in Tajikistan continues to lag behind structural peers and the Caucasus and Central Asia region. At the same time, bank interest rate spreads, a standard measure of financial intermediation costs, have...

Inflation risk premiums tend to be positive in an economy mainly hit by supply shocks, and negative if demand shocks dominate. Risk premiums also fluctuate with risk aversion. We shed light on this nexus in a linear-quadratic equilibrium macrofinance model featuring time variation in...

We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks...

I show that in linear rational expectation models, the effect of a monetary tightening can be simulated using contemporaneous and anticipated monetary policy shocks that replicate the forward curves observed during the period of interest, normalized with the forward curve observed in the quarter...

Using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on sovereign bonds, we investigate whether US sovereign default risk is a greater driving factor of domestic interbank funding risk than domestic sovereign default risk across the five Libor counties including Canada and Australia. We use equivalent-country...

Based on an analysis of changes in the yields of German government bonds, we propose a simple model for the term structure of interest rates and show empirically that this model with two parameters (relating to the interest level and slope of the term structure) fits empirically well the data...

We employ a cross-quantilogram approach to assess relationships between quantiles of stock returns and sovereign yields, in the U.S. and Germany, in the period 1990-2024. Specifically, we focus on the lowest 5% quantile of stock returns and the highest 5% quantile of bond returns, providing...

I develop a banking model with monopolistic competition to analyze the effect of reserve rate policy on bank insolvency risk, when banks are constrained by a zero lower bound on deposit rates. When binding, the lower bound compresses the solvency relevant deposit spread and causes it to be a...

This paper examines the transition from LIBOR to SOFR in the US and maps out the consequences for European corporate treasurers by showing how the application of SOFR in cash products and derivatives differs from LIBOR. As interest rate and cross-currency swaps transition to compounded SOFR,...

In recent years, because of the 2008 financial crisis and the evolution of the sovereign debt markets, there has been a significant increase in interest in understanding the factors that determine the risk premium, becoming a key indicator of the financial stability of countries, and a measure...

This International Finance Corporation (IFC) Research Note analyzes the cost of borrowing for firms in emerging and developing economies, changes in their debt structure, and indicators of indebtedness and profitability. It finds reasons for optimism on their resilience, while noting that...

This study examines the relationship between sovereign spreads and banks in terms of risk transmission, using the seven largest Italian banks as a sample over the period from 2003 to 2023. Our objective is to quantify and compare volatility spillovers, and to investigate whether bank-specific...

This study examines the too-big-to-fail expectations in the primary market issuance spreads of commercial bank tier-2 capital bonds and additional tier-1 capital bonds in China. Using a sample of 574 issuances with total amount of 4.76 trillion RMB (749 billion USD), we conduct median...

Government bond yield futures and related option contracts contain information on the asymmetry of interest rate risks. We construct probability distributions of marketimplied bond yield expectations up to 90 calendar days ahead between January 2018 and December 2023. We derive daily...

This paper analyzes the dynamics of Canadian dollar-denominated (CAD) interest rate swap yields. It applies autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, using monthly time series data, to estimate the effects of the current short-term interest rate and other relevant macro-financial variables...