Fiscal policy in the Bundestag : textual analysis and macroeconomic effects

Fiscal policy is made in parliament. We go to the roots of changes of fiscal policy in Germany and use a novel data set on all parliamentary speeches in the Bundestag from 1960 to 2021. We propose an embedding-based approach, which allows the representation of words and documents in a shared vector space, in order to measure fiscal policy-related sentiment in parliamentary debates at a scale from contractionary to expansionary. For this purpose, a dictionary containing terms related to expansionary and contractionary policy measures is created. We put fiscal sentiment into a series of recursively-identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models to show that a change in fiscal sentiment causes a change in government spending and has strong effects on the macroeconomy. The results support the notion that the debate in parliament contains information for the identification of government spending shocks.