Külkereskedelmi cserearányok, bruttó hazai reáljövedelem és bruttó hazai termék: változások és szintek nemzetközi összehasonlításban. Az Európai Unió tagországainak tapasztalatai 1995 és 2017 között - magyarországi tanulságokkal

The volume index of GDP reflects the change in real income generated by production, which differs from the change in real domestic income (RGDI) available consumption and investment in case of movements in the terms of trade (ToT). If the ToT improve (the price index of exports is above that of imports), RGDI increases by more than real GDP, permitting higher growth in real domestic expenditure than implied by the change in domestic production itself; a deterioration in the ToT implies the opposite. The study reviews alternative approaches to interpreting and measuring trading gains/losses, i.e., the effect of changes in the ToT on real domestic income. Relying on alternative methods, we quantify the impact of trading gains (losses) on the change in the components of real domestic expenditure, as well as on real income convergence within the EU between 1995 and 2017. The results suggest a close positive association between changes in real domestic expenditure - in particular, household final consumption - and the income-effect of ToT-changes. Since several new member states of the EU achieved significant gains in their ToT, the convergence in terms of per capita real domestic income was steeper than what is indicated by per capita GPP within the EU. Hungary's convergence is well below its potential in both respects, but the lag behind potential is larger regarding per capita real income than per capita production.