Índice de peligro de incendios forestales de largo plazo

A long term forest fire danger index is described. Such an index is based on the principle that forest fires follow a self organized critical behavior. This behavior implies that under a wide variety of circumstances, forest fires exhibit a power-law dependence of occurrence frequency on burn area over many orders of magnitude. The paper describes the principle of a self organized critical behavior of forest fires. Then after, based on the records of burned area and number of forest fires occurred every year in each state in Mexico within the period 1970-2005 an empirical proof that the total number of forest fires occurred every year in every state covering a defined area maintain a power law relationship with the burned area is performed. This behavior is used to define a long term forest fire danger index. Results show that forest fires in each state indeed follow a frequency-size distribution that exhibit a power-law dependence. Finally, the danger indexes are estimated for each state providing additionally a measure of fire danger in relative terms. Some uses of the fire danger index in public administration are described.