俄乌地缘政治危机与能源安全分析 (Analysis of Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Crisis on the Energy Security)

The Russia-Ukraine war and the following sanctions on Russia have disturbed the global supply and trade of energy, leading to a short-term spike in prices and a long-term change in the global supply-demand relations. The crisis has also posed the challenges to energy security for those nations that have dependence on Russia’s energy, exposing the main external vulnerability of sustainable development. This study applies the CGE modeling to simulate and quantify the economic impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. The results show that Russia and EU countries face economic downturn and a dramatic surge in CPI. The price spike in energy increases the costs of manufacturing in the value chains, which further drives up inflation. Main energy exporters otherwise have an increase in GDP. The sanctions on Russia’s energy sector also lead to trade diversion between suppliers and buyers. The exports of Russia’s oil and gas to China has increased substantially, strengthening the geopolitics of energy between the two nations. EU countries seek to diverse their imports from Russia to Saudi Arab to reduce their dependence on Russia. On the other hand, the energy crisis can provide a chance to shift toward more sustainable development and to bolster energy security by turning to clean energy