2006 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS, 2005-2015

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2005-2015 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to improve over the next 10 years, mainly because higher world oil prices have increased the conversion of sugar into ethanol by Brazil. Brazil is the largest exporter of sugar, and it is expected that Brazilian sugar exports may be reduced due to high oil prices. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices increasing from 11.35 cents/lb in 2005 to 18.05 cents/lb in 2015. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from 27.04 cents/lb in 2005 to 32.70 cents/lb in 2015, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. The CAFTA agreement is expected to increase U.S. imports slightly, but with little impact on U.S. prices. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 410 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2015. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.