2009 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2008-2018

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2008-2018 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years in spite of the 2007-08 surge in world oil prices. That increase in price caused an increase in the conversion of sugar into ethanol in Brazil, while other exporting countries increased their production in response to those higher prices. Sugar prices returned to normal levels in 2008. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Carribean sugar prices remaining near the 13.0 -14.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to decrease slightly from 28.60 cents/lb in 2008 to 28.40 cents/lb in 2018, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 119 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2018. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.