A Bayesian reversible jump piecewise hazard approach for modelling rate changes in mass shootings

Time to event data for econometric tragedies, like mass shootings, have largely been ignored from a changepoint analysis standpoint. We outline a technique for modelling economic changepoint problems using a piece- wise constant hazard model to explain different economic phenomenon. Specifically, we investigate the rates of mass shootings in the United States since August 20th 1982 as a case study to examine changes in rates of these terrible events in an attempt to connect changes to the shooter's covariates or policy and societal changes.