A Bottom-Up Gis-Based Method for Simulation of Ground-Mounted Pv Potentials at Regional Scale
Solar photovoltaic (PV) is a key technology for any renewables-based energy system. As subsidy-free PV becomes more and more economically feasible, region-specific planning tools that define areas suitable for ground-mounted PV are needed. While many top-down studies have assessed suitable areas at a national scale, an accurate but scalable bottom-up assessment of regional ground-mounted PV potentials in high spatial resolution is missing. This work introduces such a method based on digital landscape models that consider terrain slope, orientation, location-specific irradiation, and land use type, and combining this geoinformatical information with a PV yield model that allows to assess hourly PV generation potential on suitable areas.The method is validated with three existing ground-mounted PV plants in Germany, where a comparison of real and simulated annual electricity yields show average deviations of only 5%. Subsequently, PV potentials in three German counties with varying settlement, topographic and weather patterns were assessed and a comparison of yearly and hourly simulated ground-mounted PV generation potentials with regional electricity demand performed. While the yearly analysis demonstrates the substantial overall potential of local ground mounted-PV, with demand coverages ranging from 80% to hypothetically more than 40 times demand according to current regulations, the hourly autarky ratio, defined as the share of hours of a year ground-mounted PV can satisfy demand, ranges from 25% to 40%, without consideration of storage or demand side management. A subsequent investigation of the ability to export excess electricity generation from ground-mounted PV shows that the two investigated regions with high ground-mounted PV potentials as a share of demand command less-developed grid infrastructure, thus restricting excess electricity generation export potentials
Year of publication: |
[2022]
|
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Authors: | Bao, Keyu ; Kalisch, Louis ; Santhanavanich, Thunyathep ; Schröter, Bastian ; Thrän, Daniela |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
Description of contents: | Abstract [papers.ssrn.com] |
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